American Views Abroad


Friday, September 14, 2007
 
Hyperinflation

Today, for the first time in a modern context, I read the H word. It was this article: US Heads for Recession as Foreign Investors Rush for the Exit from US Dollar Holdings. Germany has its own history of hyperinflation during the Weimar Republic days. And my (German) grandmother had her own stories to tell of those times, e.g. thieves steeling a wheelbarrow filled with money, but leaving the money. She was lucky because she worked for a British-owned insurance company which paid the employees in Pound Sterling.

It would be bad enough to watch from overseas a catastrophe like hyperinflation occurring in one's own country. But a process like this also has repercussions for American citizens living abroad. Foreign income over a certain exemption is taxable. Up to now this has been a problem of the well-to-do. Middle class Americans working overseas earn below the standard exemption and do not have to pay any taxes to the IRS.

To compute the taxable amount of foreign wages, the amount earned must be converted to dollars, and the exemption subtracted. The amount that is left is taxed at the going rate. If the dollar devalues, a person in Germany living on Hartz IV (the German welfare) would be a millionaire in American dollars, and taxed as such, although the actual income was barely enough to scrape by on. I was a millionaire once, in 1988, when I visited former Yugoslavia. I still have a few thousand Yugoslavian Dinars from those days. The currency was in a state of constant devaluation at that time. For my return trip I had reserved a bed on the night train back to Germany, but when I showed up, the bed was taken. I sent the reservation back to friends who received a refund, which was just enough to buy a coke.

The only option an American abroad has to avoid the double taxation is to renounce citizenship. It is hard for me to imagine that stateside politicians will be very concerned about Americans abroad, but that rather this group will be seen as a lucrative source of hard currency. Of course the worse the inflation is, the less real money would be owed. But the situation of taxation of a stable currency converted to a currency in free fall is completely undefined.

Comments:
Pretty good analysis, although we're far from that point so far. I think inflation is still between 2-3 percent. Domestically we're going through something similar with the Alternative Minimum Tax which was created so the filthy rich couldn't get out of taxes through creative accounting but which is getting close to affecting some upper middle class families. I'm far from there, too.

I didn't know you had to pay taxes on foreign earnings. It certainly would be silly to make people renounce citizenship to avoid taxes on income earned overseas.

I wouldn't be certain that politicians discount Americans abroad, though. For every permanent resident outside the U.S. there are probably several living overseas for a couple years and planning to come home and vote.

Interesting problem, though.
 
I think your final point is important - even if you were to become a US dollar multi-millionaire because of inflation, a possible exchange rate of 10 or 20 dollars to the euro would even things out a lot.

I lived in Israel during a period of hyper-inflation. We were paid in shekels every couple of weeks. You had to rush to the bank to convert the money to US dollars, or it would lose 15-20% of its value in a month. You'd buy soup cans or cereal in the stores - this was before bar codes - and there'd be a stack of little price tag stickers on the items, each one more expensive than the last. Crazy time.
 
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